Two things I Heard
Howie talked to Bob Schieffer, and they played the clip of the President at the third debate: "In all due respect, I'm not so sure it's credible to quote leading news organizations about -- oh, never mind."
Howie asked Bob if he thought the President were "trying to stick it to CBS News." Schieffer smiled with a twinkle and said: "I suspect he was."
What went unsaid in this exchange, was that CBS News had perpetrated a fraud designed to hinder the man's reelection and he showed the grace to be able to tease them as if it had been a minor affront.
He might be going with the RealClear number, which Fox uses, giving the State to JF Kerry. Their average, though, puts Kerry up by 3.4%, which is within all of the margins used. (Which, I know, do not equal an aggregate margin of error.)
A lot of this, I think, will depend on how effectively Bill Clinton can get out the Democrat black vote in Philadelphia, which is similar to what Kerry is trying with Al Gore speaking to black churches in Florida. It's this kind of class/race "warfare" in which Bob Shrum made his name.
The President wins Florida, of course, but we'll see who wins the lawsuit.