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10/26/2004

 

PoliAnnotation Quote of the Hour


This is political analyst Charlie Cook from Tuesday's "Off to the Races" e-mail column:

Having gone through all of that, I still think it is a fool's errand to try to out-smart the Electoral College. If the margin on Election Day is more than one percentage point, then the electoral vote will follow the popular vote. But if the margin is less than a point, then it means that there are a bunch of states, roughly a half-dozen, that will be basically tied, and no poll, particularly given the lousy quality of most state-level, news media-sponsored polls, can tell you who will win those.

Five states were decided in 2000 by a half-percentage point or less. No poll can tell you who will win those. No poll could tell you who was going to win Florida, which Bush won by 537 votes, or New Mexico, which Gore carried by 366 votes. Anybody lucky enough to pick the precise outcome of the last half-dozen or so states in this election shouldn't be wasting their time on politics -- they should be playing the Powerball lottery.


JF Kerry will win Massachusetts (12). The President will win Texas (34). Europe (0) doesn't get a vote.

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