American will re-elect Bush
That's what Jim Geraghty of NRO's "The Kerry Spot" took from an interview with a "longtime GOP operative."
The thesis is that Truman was not fighting to win the Korean War in 1952, so the American people let him know to opt out of the race. They elected General Eisenhower. In '72, they selected President Nixon over the peacenik candidate, George McGovern. He saw 1984 as a race between President Reagan the cold warrior and Fritz the co-existing Mondale.
This year, the guru said, the race is between commander in chief President Bush and international crime-fighter JK Kerry.
"Remember Reagan's farewell letter. He never lost faith in the American people."
Unfortunately, if the press is to be believed, it might be time to lose faith in half of them. The powers of division seized Bill Clinton and used him to push it to the max.
This is an unconventional election, and relying on conventional models is inappropriate; however, the American people did put aside politics for a moment when we were attacked on 9-11, suggested that there is a core Americanism which transcends the day-in-hand. Perhaps that's what Geraghty's "Obi Wan" was observing.